The Buckeyes are now on top of my ratings! Southern Cal's loss didn't shake up my ratings as much as the BCS, though. By the numbers, the Pac-10 is strong enough to rate two in the top four and two more in the top 20. For the BCS, let the arguing commence! It's possible that everyone will lose in the Big East scrum, and it's possible that Florida and Auburn will lose again, but the most likely outcome is that it will be an unbeaten Big East team or a one-loss SEC team in the title game. Here's a weird thought: what if Ohio State and Michigan are far and away 1-2 going into their game. are there any circumstances under which you'd keep them 1-2 for the bowls?
On that topic, the computer has a clear choice for SEC versus Big East. I count four SEC teams ranked above West Virginia. Maybe the computer's been reading all those West Virginia jokes that I get in email. One property that I like about my system is that if the argument is about "Which record is more impressive?" then I can give a precise answer based on the assumptions that go into my model. If the question is "Who deserves to be in the championship game?" then I think you go with intangibles as much as the numbers shown here. But, "Which teams would play the best game?" is an entirely different question. (See my question at the end of the last paragraph.)
We finally have all the preliminaries cleared out to focus on the big game, the one for which we've been waiting all year. Yes, Boston College at Wake Forest is finally here. Well, that West Virginia - Louisville game is also good. The winner of each game has the inside track, but no guarantee, of a championship. Wake in particular has a tough schedule remaining, and Rutgers awaits both WV and the Ville.
The following picks are straight from the ratings with 4 points added for home field.
Louisville over West Virginia by 6 (The computer has not been impressed by the Eers;
will the Cards be?)
Boston College over Wake Forest by 3 (Can Wake handle the pressure? Can BC play a good road game?)
Florida State over Virginia by 9 (Bobby needs a win, Jeff needs points, to avoid the Chop-ping block.)
Virginia Tech over Miami by 6 (Can the Hokies play 2 good ones in a row? Can Miami play 1?)
Wisconsin over Penn State by 8 (The Badgers keep winning, the Lions are improving)
Nebraska over Missouri by 2 (For the Big 12 North lead, even though both got pounded by the Oklahomas last week)
Texas A&M over Oklahoma by 1 (The Aggies, 8-1, still have a shot at the Big 12 South)
Texas over Oklahoma State by 13 (A weird tradition: OS goes up by 30, Texas wins by 20)
Tulsa over Houston by 1 (Tulsa at 7-1 has been the class of Conference USA)
Arkansas over South Carolina by 3 (A must win for the Hogs if they're to stay in first place)
Tennessee over LSU by 4 (Game of the week based on the ratings here, not much love from talk show folks)
|101||New Mexico St||28.44|
|108||San Diego St||24.87|